Two questions to examine here: how immoderate is Marco Rubio's senate record? And, did the results in Iowa discredit polling?
Harry Enten, senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight, said Rubio's voting record is considerably more conservative and more anti-establishment than any other Republican candidate. And this was reflected in his areas of success in Iowa - Enten explained that Rubio did best in urban and suburban areas where people consider themselves somewhat conservative. He noted it looks a lot like Mitt Romney's base. But it doesn't fall perfectly in line with polling.
President of Public Agenda Will Friedman asked whether polling is a meaningful and useful tool in democracy. He suggested horse-race polling could be a distortion, and it creates this interesting dance between a hungry 24-hour news cycle and the misleadingly suspenseful poll results. Polls create media attention, and in time fiction becomes reality.
